891 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 210301
 TCDEP2
  
 HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013
  
 RAYMOND HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING AT AN ASTOUNDING RATE SINCE THIS
 AFTERNOON.  THE EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
 PICTURES...AND WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO THE SMALL EYE HAS CLEARED
 AND WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY.  ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT
 0000 UTC WERE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AN EARLIER CIMSS AMSU
 INTENSITY INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 74 KT.  GIVEN THE MUCH
 IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE EARLY THIS EVENING...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT...WHICH MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE. 
 THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
 CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND ADDITIONAL
 INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.  THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
 NOW CALLS FOR RAYMOND TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 12
 HOURS...AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE
 FOREAST PERIOD...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND IS LIKELY TO INITIATE
 WEAKENING.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/5 KT.  RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO
 MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
 36 HOURS WHILE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
 CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
 OUT...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AND RAYMOND IS
 FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY.  THE PRIMARY
 DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND HOW
 CLOSE RAYMOND WILL GET TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WHETHER LANDFALL WILL OCCUR.  THE GFDL
 AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE RAYMOND TO THE COAST WITHIN 48
 HOURS....WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
 NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE IN BETWEEN AND
 SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST.  IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT ONLY A
 SMALL NORTHWARD DEVIATION OF RAYMOND FROM THE NHC FOREAST WOULD
 BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE COAST.  THE UPDATED
 NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
 GFS MODELS.
  
 GIVEN THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...RECENT STRENGTHENING...AND POSSIBLE
 EXPANSION OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE
 GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM TECPAN DE
 GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS.  HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
 CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE
 NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
 LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/0300Z 15.9N 102.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  21/1200Z 16.3N 102.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
  24H  22/0000Z 16.6N 101.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
  36H  22/1200Z 16.8N 101.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
  48H  23/0000Z 17.0N 101.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  24/0000Z 16.7N 103.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  25/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  26/0000Z 16.0N 109.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN