186 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 200833
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013
  
 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP A LITTLE BIT DURING THE PAST
 COUPLE OF HOURS...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA
 INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
 IMPROVED. BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
 SAB...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS...
 THE 17TH NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.
 
 AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS SHOULD FAVOR
 INTENSIFICATION PRIMARILY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHEN
 RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE. AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
 THE OCEAN IS WARM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A LITTLE BUT
 STILL ALLOWING RAYMOND TO REMAIN A 65-KT HURRICANE THROUGH THE
 FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE 
 CONSENSUS AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODEL PAIR. THERE IS NO SCATTEROMETER
 DATA NEARBY TO DETERMINE THE WIND RADII...BUT RAYMOND APPEARS TO BE
 A SMALL-SIZE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. 
 
 BASED ON IR AND MICROWAVE FIXES...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
 MOTION IS 315 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS.  A LARGE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL
 TROUGH IS CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND THIS
 PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE RAYMON TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
 NORTHWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...STEERING CURRENTS
 ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...AND RAYMOND WILL
 PROBABLY MOVE VERY LITTLE. BEYOND 4 DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL
 MODELS REBUILD A STRONG RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND THE FLOW AROUND THE
 RIDGE WILL STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN TOWARD THE
 WEST-SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
 TRACK FORECAST IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO THE CYCLONE WILL
 TURN WESTWARD. LATEST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTWARD
 TURN WILL LIKELY OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND
 BEFORE THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...
 ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A
 HURRICANE MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO FOR THE
 NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND BEYOND.   
 
 HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
 SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS
 COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  20/0900Z 14.5N 101.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  20/1800Z 15.1N 101.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  21/0600Z 15.6N 102.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  21/1800Z 16.0N 102.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  22/0600Z 16.2N 102.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  23/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  24/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  25/0600Z 16.5N 104.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA