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 517 
 WTNT42 KNHC 171446
 TCDAT2
  
 HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
 1100 AM AST WED OCT 17 2012
  
 RAFAEL REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL CLOSE
 TO THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE IS UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
 TRANSITION...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND
 THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
 SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO
 COMPLETE THE TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW LATER TODAY. 
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED AND THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE REDUCED TO 65 KT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING
 IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD....HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL
 REMAIN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE
 NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
  
 RAFAEL IS RACING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 30 KT.  THE TRACK
 GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
 MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AND THEN COMPLETE A
 CYCLONIC LOOP AROUND A DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
 ATLANTIC IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
 CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.  GUIDANCE FROM THE
 OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WAS HELPFUL FOR BOTH THE TRACK AND WIND
 RADII FORECASTS.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  17/1500Z 37.5N  59.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  18/0000Z 41.0N  54.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  24H  18/1200Z 44.8N  45.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  19/0000Z 48.0N  36.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  19/1200Z 51.0N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  20/1200Z 54.0N  33.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  21/1200Z 47.5N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  22/1200Z 43.5N  29.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 
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