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 864 
 WTNT42 KNHC 150243
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
 ON SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MORE
 DISTINCT CURVED BAND FEATURES NOTED TO THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...
 NORTHEAST...AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
 HUNTERS MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 71 KT AND AN
 SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 59 KT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. 
 CORRECTING FOR RAINFALL REDUCES THIS SFMR VALUE TO 54 KT...BUT IT
 IS PRESUMED THAT SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER
 THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
 INCREASED TO 60 KT.  
 
 RAFAEL HAS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
 AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ITS CIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH THE
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE MODERATE TO
 STRONG OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND
 THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE
 THAT RAFAEL COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE IN THE SHORT TERM.  IN 2-3
 DAYS...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KT
 AS A LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.  BY 96 HOURS...GLOBAL
 MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
 PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN
 EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.
 
 THE MOTION REMAINS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 330/9...AND THE FORECAST
 STEERING SCENARIO REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  RAFAEL IS
 EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING
 FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES BETWEEN A
 MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA.  BY LATE
 IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE EXTRATROPICAL
 CYCLONE SLOWING DOWN AS IT INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
 NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.  THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
 FORWARD SPEED PREDICTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS OVER THE NEXT 3
 DAYS OR SO...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWER MOTION
 THAN MOST OF THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
 IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LEANS TOWARD THE
 LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST. 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/0300Z 21.6N  64.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  15/1200Z 22.8N  65.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  16/0000Z 24.8N  65.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  16/1200Z 27.5N  65.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  17/0000Z 31.5N  62.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  18/0000Z 40.5N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  19/0000Z 48.0N  39.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  20/0000Z 49.0N  26.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 
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