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 807 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 300841
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014
 
 Rachel has lost all of its deep convection, although it is possible
 that some sporadic bursts of showers and thunderstorms could return
 to the circulation today.  A couple of recent ASCAT passes missed
 the radius of maximum winds, but using a blend of the latest Dvorak
 estimates from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is set, perhaps
 generously, at 35 kt.  Southwesterly shear over Rachel is forecast
 to become even stronger, more than 30 kt, within a day or so and
 continued weakening is expected.  The system should degenerate into
 a remnant low in 12-24 hours.  The official intensity forecast is
 close to the model consensus, although just a little higher,
 suggesting that the cyclone could weaken even faster than indicated
 here.
 
 There has been little movement over the past several hours, which
 was anticipated by the track model guidance.  Rachel is in an
 environment of weak steering currents, and is expected to remain so
 through today.  A weak low-level ridge developing to the northwest
 and north is expected to cause the post-tropical cyclone to move
 very slowly west-southwestward in 1-2 days, followed by a turn
 toward the west.  The official track forecast is close to the model
 consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/0900Z 23.3N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  30/1800Z 23.2N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  01/0600Z 23.1N 118.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  01/1800Z 23.0N 118.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  02/0600Z 22.8N 118.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  03/0600Z 22.8N 120.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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