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 531 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 290257
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014
 
 Rachel has made a little bit of a resurgence since the previous
 advisory, with a well-defined 15-20 nmi diameter low- to mid-level
 eye apparent in various microwave satellite images. Visible
 satellite imagery during the past few hours also indicates a small
 ring of overshooting cloud tops beginning to encircle a ragged,
 cloud-filled eye. The only reason the initial intensity is being
 maintained at 65 kt is due to the lack of persistence in the recent
 increase in the inner-core convection.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 355/4 kt, which is based primarily on
 microwave satellite fix positions. The most recent NHC track model
 guidance has become less divergent since the previous advisory,
 with the 18Z GFS model now taking Rachel more westward after 24
 hours. Overall, the models are in pretty good agreement on steering
 currents collapsing during the next 48 hours, resulting in Rachel
 becoming nearly stationary during that time, followed by a westward
 or southwestward drift as a remnant low pressure system. The
 official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory
 advisory track and the consensus model TVCE.
 
 Rachel is currently over 26C sea-surface temperatures, and the
 small cyclone will be moving over slightly cooler water during the
 next 48 hours. The cooler water, in combination with increasing
 southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt by 36 hours,
 should induce gradual weakening throughout the forecast period with
 Rachel degenerating into a remnant low pressure system by 48 hours
 or so. This intensity forecast is consistent with a blend of the
 intensity consensus model IVCN and the Decay-SHIPS model.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  29/0300Z 22.5N 117.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  29/1200Z 22.8N 117.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  30/0000Z 23.0N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  30/1200Z 22.9N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  01/0000Z 22.8N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  02/0000Z 22.5N 118.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  03/0000Z 22.4N 119.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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