195 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 282040
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014
 
 The cloud pattern of Rachel has not changed very much in visible
 satellite imagery during the past several hours.  A ragged
 banded-type eye has occasionally been evident in visible imagery
 and recent microwave data has shown a similar feature.  The latest
 Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased slightly so the initial
 wind speed has been reduced to 65 kt.  Increasing southwesterly
 vertical wind shear and a less favorable thermodynamic environment
 are expected to cause steady weakening during the next couple of
 days, and Rachel should weaken to a tropical depression in about
 48 hours.  The cyclone is forecast to degenerate to a remnant
 low shortly thereafter.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is
 close to the multi-model consensus.
 
 Rachel appears to be slowing down, with an initial motion estimate
 of 340/4 kt.  The latest track guidance has become more divergent
 with the GFS and HWRF taking Rachel more northward, then
 northeastward in southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge over
 Mexico and a trough moving across the western United States. On the
 other hand, the ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean show less of a poleward
 motion as the cyclone weakens and become a more shallow system. The
 NHC forecast leans toward the latter solution and shows Rachel
 moving slowly northward during the next 24 hours, then turning
 west-southwestward in the low-level flow after weakening occurs.
 The new forecast is similar to, but a little slower than the
 previous NHC advisory.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/2100Z 21.7N 117.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  29/0600Z 22.3N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  29/1800Z 22.6N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  30/0600Z 22.6N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  30/1800Z 22.5N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  01/1800Z 22.0N 118.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  02/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown