682 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 271434
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014
 
 Rachel continues to exhibit an occasional eye-like feature in
 infrared satellite imagery, and this was also seen in an AMSR2 pass
 just after 0900 UTC. However, the overall convective pattern is not
 terribly impressive, with only a small area of deep convection near
 the center and little in the way of banding. The initial intensity
 remains 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
 SAB. With the inner core trying to organize, there is the potential
 for Rachel to reach hurricane intensity during in the next 12 to 18
 hours before the thermodynamic environment becomes more hostile.
 After that time, Rachel will be moving over marginal SSTs and into
 an increasingly dry and stable atmosphere, which should result in
 steady weakening. The new NHC forecast shows Rachel peaking in 12
 hours, and after that time is close to the IVCN intensity consensus
 while the cyclone decays.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 325/07. Rachel should continue
 turning poleward while it moves into a weakness in the subtropical
 ridge during the next 24 hours. After that time, the decaying
 cyclone will be caught in a region of weak steering currents, and a
 slow north-northwestward motion is shown at 36 to 48 hours. Later in
 the period, the shallow cyclone should begin moving southwestward as
 it comes under the influence of a low-level ridge over the
 northeastern Pacific. The track model guidance still shows a fair
 amount of spread, but the GFS and GFDL models have continued to
 trend southward this cycle. As a result, the TVCE multi-model
 consensus has shifted to the left, and the latest NHC track has been
 adjusted in that direction at 36 to 48 hours. Otherwise, the new
 NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous advisory when
 accounting for the initial position and motion.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/1500Z 19.6N 116.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  28/0000Z 20.3N 116.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  28/1200Z 21.2N 116.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  29/0000Z 21.7N 117.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  29/1200Z 21.9N 117.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  30/1200Z 21.7N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  01/1200Z 21.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  02/1200Z 20.0N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan