Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 349 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 170233
 TCDEP1
  
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
 800 PM PDT WED OCT 16 2013
 
 ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FROM PRISCILLA FOR ABOUT
 12 HOURS. AS A RESULT...PRISCILLA NO LONGER MEETS THE DEFINITION OF
 A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. GRADUAL
 WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SHEAR
 INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS. THE REMNANT LOW IS
 EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN
 SOONER. 
  
 THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA HAS LOST SOME DEFINITION DURING THE PAST FEW
 HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
 285/06. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD SOON TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-
 SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC TRACK
 FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN
 THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF.  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  17/0300Z 18.7N 120.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  12H  17/1200Z 18.8N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  18/0000Z 18.7N 123.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  18/1200Z 18.4N 124.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  19/0000Z 18.0N 125.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for PRISCILLA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman