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 709 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 162037
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
 200 PM PDT WED OCT 16 2013
  
 THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN PRISCILLA HAS VANISHED...LEAVING
 BEHIND ONLY A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL OVERLAID BY MID-LEVEL
 DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. A TIMELY 1717Z ASCAT-B PASS HELPED TO PROVIDE
 BOTH AN ACCURATE POSITION OF PRISCILLA AND ALSO TO SHOW PEAK
 SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KT. THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS REDUCED TO 25
 KT.
  
 THE CONVECTIVE STRUGGLES OF PRISCILLA ARE DUE TO IT TRAVERSING
 LUKEWARM 26C WATER AND BEING EMBEDDED IN FAIRLY DRY AIR. ALONG ITS
 PROJECTED PATH...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE
 WEST SHORTLY...AND THE SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL. THUS A
 TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IS INDICATED IN A DAY.
 HOWEVER...THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT
 RE-EMERGE SOON.
  
 PRISCILLA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 KT. AS THE
 CYCLONE COMPLETELY LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION...IT WILL BE CARRIED
 ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
 UPON THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THAT
 INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  16/2100Z 18.6N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  17/0600Z 18.7N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  17/1800Z 18.7N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  18/0600Z 18.5N 123.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  18/1800Z 18.3N 125.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER LANDSEA
  
 
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