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 170 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 161440
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
 800 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013
  
 A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO BANDING FEATURES
 IS OCCURRING OVER AND TO THE WEST OF PRISCILLA.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED.  A 0534Z
 ASCAT PASS WAS A BULLSEYE PROVIDING BOTH AN ACCURATE POSITION OF
 PRISCILLA AND ALSO SHOWING MULTIPLE 25-30 KT WIND VECTORS.  THE
 INTENSITY ANALYSIS REMAINS 30 KT.
 
 THE CONVECTIVE STRUGGLES OF PRISCILLA ARE MAINLY DUE TO IT
 TRAVERSING LUKEWARM 26-27C WATER AND BEING EMBEDDED IN FAIRLY DRY
 AIR...AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN QUITE LOW.  ALONG ITS
 PROJECTED PATH...HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MUCH
 STRONGER OUT OF THE WEST STARTING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE SSTS
 SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL.  THUS GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL
 REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR TWO.  THIS SCENARIO IS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED IN THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 PRISCILLA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 7
 KT...PRIMARILY THROUGH THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST.  AS THE CYCLONE COMPLETELY
 LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION...IT WILL BE CARRIED ALONG IN THE
 LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE
 TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THAT
 INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  16/1500Z 18.1N 119.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  17/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  17/1200Z 18.6N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  18/0000Z 18.5N 122.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  18/1200Z 18.4N 124.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  19/1200Z 18.0N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER LANDSEA
  
 
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