Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 518 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 160232
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013
  
 A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
 OF THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS
 NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 REMAINS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS
 FROM TAFB AND SAB. PRISCILLA WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
 COOLER WATERS IN A DRY ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT
 COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE FACTORS...IN COMBINATION WITH AN INCREASE IN
 SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN PRISCILLA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS
 AND DISSIPATING AFTER 72 HOURS. 
 
 BASED ON A 2315Z AMSU PASS...THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA WAS LOCATED A
 LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
 ESTIMATE IS 290/06. PRISCILLA SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS PRISCILLA
 BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN
 TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND
 FLOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. MUCH OF THE TRACK
 GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF THE PREVIOUS
 OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED FASTER AFTER
 24 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FOLLOWING THOSE
 TRENDS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST...BUT SLOWER THAN
 THE GFS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  16/0300Z 17.7N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  16/1200Z 18.1N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  17/0000Z 18.6N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  17/1200Z 19.0N 121.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  18/0000Z 18.8N 122.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  19/0000Z 18.0N 124.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for PRISCILLA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman