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 026 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 152038
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013
  
 PRISCILLA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH EACH
 A LITTLE BIT SMALLER IN COVERAGE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  DVORAK
 DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE CYCLONE
 IS BEING INITIALIZED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION.  NOW THAT THE DEEP-
 LAYER SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS A LITTLE BIT
 LESS EXPOSED FROM THIS LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...DRIER
 AND MORE STABLE AIR SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
 HAMPER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  PRISCILLA IS FORECAST
 TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COLDER WATER...AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 96
 HOURS.
  
 PRISCILLA HAS MADE A HARD LEFT TURN AND IS NOW MOVING 300/7 KT.
 LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD
 CONTINUE TO STEER IT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD UNTIL
 DISSIPATION.  THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT WESTWARD...WITH
 THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS LYING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE...SO THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT
 DIRECTION AS WELL. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/2100Z 17.7N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  16/0600Z 18.1N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  16/1800Z 18.7N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  17/0600Z 19.2N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  17/1800Z 19.4N 121.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  18/1800Z 18.7N 123.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
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