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 996 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 151435
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013
  
 A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER AROUND THE TIME OF THE LAST ADVISORY.  DVORAK
 ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 30-35 KT AND SUPPORT MAINTAINING PRISCILLA
 AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM.  DEEP-LAYER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
 DECREASING TO BELOW 10 KT...BUT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
 PRISCILLA CONTINUES TO INGEST MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTHWEST.
 SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE FOR ABOUT 24
 HOURS...PRISCILLA SHOULD EITHER MAINTAIN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
 STRENGTH OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THAT TIME.  INCREASING
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD THEN CAUSE PRISCILLA
 TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
  
 PRISCILLA APPEARS TO BE TURNING AND NOW HAS AN ESTIMATED INITIAL
 MOTION OF 330/6 KT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
 THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
 WHILE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO.  THE
 UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
 TVCE AND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/1500Z 17.4N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  16/0000Z 17.9N 117.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  16/1200Z 18.6N 118.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  17/0000Z 19.2N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  17/1200Z 19.7N 120.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  18/1200Z 19.6N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
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