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 456 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 150836
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013
  
 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
 AND SEPARATED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST
 SEVERAL HOURS.  THE LATEST DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM
 TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT...WHICH
 COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN
 PLAGUING PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TODAY BUT AT THE SAME
 TIME THE CYCLONE WILL BE INGESTING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS
 NORTHWEST.  THESE UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE
 PRISCILLA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AND PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO BECOME
 A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
 DOES NOT RETURN LATER TODAY...THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A REMNANT
 LOW MUCH SOONER. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/7 KT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
 INDICATES THAT PRISCILLA WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON AS THE
 WESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER MEXICO BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE 
 NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY
 WEDNESDAY AND THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IS FORWARD
 SPEED SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK IS
 SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO A LITTLE MORE
 NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE
 TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/0900Z 17.1N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  15/1800Z 17.7N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  16/0600Z 18.5N 118.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  16/1800Z 19.3N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  17/0600Z 19.8N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  18/0600Z 20.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 
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