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 479 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 150238
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
 800 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PRISCILLA HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION DURING THE
 PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A NEW BURST OF DEEP
 CONVECTION NEAR THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE OVERALL
 CONVECTIVE MASS HAS SHRUNK AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
 SOME SINCE EARLIER TODAY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35
 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
 SAB.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS DUE NORTH OR 360/07. THE CYCLONE HAS
 BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND TOWARD A WEAKNESS TO THE WEST OF THE
 BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
 TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF PRISCILLA SOON...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE
 CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING
 THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE TRACK SHOULD BEND TOWARD
 THE WEST ONCE THE SYSTEM DECOUPLES AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
 LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT AND
 FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MULTI-MODEL
 CONSENSUS TVCE.
  
 MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
 BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
 WHILE PRISCILLA MOVES OVER WARM BUT SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
 AHEAD...PRISCILLA IS ALREADY INGESTING MORE AND MORE OF A
 STRATOCUMULUS FIELD INTO ITS CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH. THIS
 NEGATIVE FACTOR WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY SHORT-TERM
 INTENSIFICATION. WEAKENING LIKELY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS DUE TO A
 SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER WATERS. THE
 NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
 IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. DISSIPATION
 IS NOW SHOWN SOONER...BY 96 HOURS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
 MODEL SOLUTIONS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/0300Z 16.2N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  15/1200Z 16.9N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  16/0000Z 17.6N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  16/1200Z 18.4N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  17/0000Z 19.2N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
  72H  18/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
  
 
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