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 960 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 142036
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
 200 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT
 AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...AND IT REMAINS LOCATED ALONG
 THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  A 1706 UTC ASCAT PASS
 SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS MAY HAVE
 SHRUNK SINCE LAST NIGHT...BUT A FEW VECTORS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN
 QUADRANT APPEAR TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO EKE OUT AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT. 
 MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
 AFFECT PRISCILLA FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT THEN SHOULD
 DECREASE TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT SOME STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...
 PRISCILLA IS ALREADY INGESTING A STABLE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD INTO
 ITS CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE POOR THERMODYNAMIC
 ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH MAY BE THE STRONGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
 SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
 SHEAR AND COLDER WATER ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PRISCILLA BY DAY
 3...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEREFORE WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY
 4...IF NOT SOONER.  THE 12Z GFDL AND HWRF RUNS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
 WEAKER THAN THE 06Z RUNS...AND NO LONGER SHOW PRISCILLA REACHING
 NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY.  AS A RESULT...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
 HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD ON THIS CYCLE.
 
 PRISCILLA IS SLOWING DOWN AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/8 KT. 
 THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS MEXICO IS
 FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TROPICAL
 STORM OCTAVE DISSIPATES NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE
 RIDGE WILL FORCE PRISCILLA TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD
 WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
 THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAS AGAIN
 SHIFTED WESTWARD.  THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED
 IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT THE ADJUSTMENT IS NOT AS BIG AS WHAT WAS
 NEEDED EARLIER THIS MORNING.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  14/2100Z 15.7N 115.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  15/0600Z 16.6N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  15/1800Z 17.3N 116.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  16/0600Z 18.0N 118.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  16/1800Z 18.8N 119.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  17/1800Z 19.8N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  18/1800Z 19.6N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  19/1800Z 18.3N 123.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
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