932 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 220233
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014
 
 Only a very small area of convection remains, and it is associated
 with Polo's remnant mid-level circulation about 120 n mi
 west-northwest of the exposed low-level center.  Despite the
 current structure, the maximum winds probably have not decreased
 significantly since the earlier ASCAT data, so the initial
 intensity is held at 35 kt for now.  Although the cyclone could
 still produce some bursts of convection since it will remain over
 26C water, persistent shear is likely to cause the winds to
 continue to decrease gradually during the next few days.  Polo will
 likely become a post-tropical remnant low within the next 24 hours
 if deep convection doesn't redevelop soon.  Dissipation is expected
 by late Thursday.
 
 Polo appears to have sped up a bit, possibly due to the low-level
 center being tugged westward by the earlier burst of deep
 convection, and the initial motion is 290/9 kt.  As the cyclone
 weakens, it will become increasingly steered by low-level northerly
 flow off the coast of the Baja California peninsula.  This will
 force Polo to turn westward and slow down on Monday and then turn
 southwestward by late Tuesday.  The updated NHC track forecast is
 similar to the previous one and is close to the multi-model
 consensus TVCE.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/0300Z 22.9N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  22/1200Z 23.0N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  23/0000Z 22.8N 115.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  23/1200Z 22.4N 116.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  24/0000Z 21.9N 116.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  25/0000Z 20.3N 117.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg