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 045 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 202037
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014
 
 Polo is a sheared cyclone, and the cloud pattern consists of a tight
 swirl of low clouds with intermittent deep convection. The initial
 intensity is kept at 40 kt at this time, but given the hostile
 environment and the cooler waters, weakening is forecast. Polo will
 likely become a remnant low in about 36 hours.
 
 Polo has been moving between northwest and west-northwest since
 yesterday at about 5 to 7 kt. The cyclone is trapped south of an
 amplifying mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this pattern should
 force Polo to move on a west-northwest to west track for the next 2
 to 3 days, and then the remnant low should meander until
 dissipation. The NHC forecast has not changed, and continues to be
 very close to the multi-model consensus.
 
 Based on the forecast track and wind radii, tropical storm force
 winds are anticipated to remain south of the Baja California
 peninsula. Since any unexpected deviation to the north of the
 forecast track could bring tropical storm force winds to the coast,
 the Government of Mexico is keeping the tropical storm watch until
 Polo begins to move away from Baja California Sur.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  20/2100Z 21.2N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  21/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  21/1800Z 22.0N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  22/0600Z 22.3N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  22/1800Z 22.0N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  23/1800Z 21.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  24/1800Z 20.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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