147 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 201432
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014
 
 Although the convection has increased a little in the past
 couple of hours, Polo is still a sheared cyclone. The cloud pattern
 consists of a tight swirl of low clouds located on the northeastern
 edge of an area of intermittent deep convection. Based on the trend
 of satellite estimates, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40
 kt, and these winds are probably occurring in the convection in the
 southwest quadrant. The shear is forecast to increase even further,
 and the cyclone is heading toward cooler waters. The combination of
 these two factors should result in additional weakening, and Polo is
 expected to become a tropical depression in about 24 hours. In fact,
 the SHIPS and LGEM models dissipate the cyclone by 36 hours.
 
 Polo has been moving between the northwest and west-northwest since
 yesterday at about 5 to 7 kt. The cyclone is trapped south of an
 amplifying mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this pattern should
 force Polo to move on a west-northwest to west track until
 dissipation in a few days. The NHC forecast has not changed, and
 continues to be very close to the multi-model consensus.
 
 Based on the forecast track and wind radii, tropical storm force
 winds are anticipated to remain south of the Baja California
 peninsula.  Since any unexpected deviation to the north of the
 forecast track could bring tropical storm force winds to the coast,
 the government of Mexico has wisely opted to maintain the tropical
 storm watch until Polo moves away from Baja California.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  20/1500Z 20.9N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  21/0000Z 21.3N 109.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  21/1200Z 21.9N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  22/0000Z 22.3N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  22/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  23/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  25/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila