162 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 172053
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
 200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014
 
 Polo is intensifying, given the improvement of the cloud pattern
 during the past several hours. In fact, there was a hint of an eye
 feature embedded within a circular area of deep convection around
 1800 UTC, but this feature has not been observed since then. Based
 on the average of the T-numbers from SAB and TAFB, the initial
 intensity is increased to 60 kt. There is an opportunity for Polo to
 strengthen before the strong upper-level northeasterlies become
 established over the cyclone in 48 hours as indicated by most of the
 global models. The NHC forecast is near the upper boundary of the
 intensity guidance.
 
 The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
 310 degrees at 10 knots. Most of the global models indicate that
 the mid-level ridge over Mexico will build westward, and this
 pattern will gradually steer Polo toward the west-northwest. On the
 forecast track, the core of the cyclone will stay south of the
 southwestern coast of Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. This
 official forecast is similar to the previous one, and follows both
 the multi-model consensus TVCN, and the average of the GFS and the
 ECMWF models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/2100Z 16.4N 103.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  18/0600Z 17.2N 105.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  18/1800Z 17.8N 106.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  19/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  19/1800Z 19.2N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  20/1800Z 20.5N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  21/1800Z 21.5N 113.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  22/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila