708 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 162034
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014
 
 The cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized, with very
 well defined cyclonically curved convective bands wrapping around a
 small central dense overcast. An ASCAT-B pass over the cyclone
 a few hours ago yields an initial intensity of 40 kt. The ocean is
 plenty warm south of Mexico, and the shear is expected to decrease
 during the next day or two. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls
 for strengthening, making Polo a hurricane in about 36 hours, in
 good agreement with the model consensus ICON. After 48 hours, most
 of the guidance shows an increase in shear and no additional
 development is anticipated, and in fact, some gradual weakening
 should then begin.
 
 Polo is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at about 10
 kt, steered by the flow around a mid-level ridge over the
 southwestern United States and northern Mexico. This ridge will
 continue to steer Polo on a track parallel to and not too far from
 the southwest coast of Mexico, and take the cyclone well south
 of the Baja California peninsula. The ECMWF model, which
 previously brought the cyclone closer to Mexico, has changed its
 tune, and now keeps the cyclone offshore like the solution of the
 GFS. This is reflected in a southward shift in the multi-model
 consensus TVCN, which is very close to the NHC forecast.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/2100Z 13.2N 100.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  17/0600Z 14.2N 101.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  17/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  18/0600Z 16.8N 104.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  18/1800Z 17.8N 106.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  19/1800Z 19.5N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  20/1800Z 21.0N 110.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  21/1800Z 22.5N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila