436 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 161457
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014
 
 Microwave data earlier today indicated that the center of
 Polo was to the north of the main convection due to moderate
 northeasterly shear.  Since that time, the thunderstorm
 activity has increased near the center despite the shear, but
 the cloud pattern is still somewhat disrupted. Dvorak intensity
 numbers support an initial intensity of 35 kt. The ocean is plenty
 warm in that area, and with the shear expected to decrease, the NHC
 forecast calls for strengthening, making Polo a hurricane in about
 48 hours.  This is in good agreement with the intensity consensus
 ICON.
 
 Polo is moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees at about 10
 kt. The flow around a mid-level ridge over the southwestern
 United States and northern Mexico is controlling the track of
 Polo. This ridge is forecast to persist, keeping Polo on a general
 northwestward track for the next 3 to 4 days. The ECMWF
 model forecasts the ridge to weaken faster than the GFS, bringing
 the center of the storm closer to the coast. At this time, the NHC
 forecast follows the multi-model consensus TVCN, and the average
 track between the GFS and the ECMWF, keeping Polo on a track
 parallel to the southwest coast of Mexico. Polo is expected to turn
 to the west by the end of the forecast period as a ridge to the
 north rebuilds.
 
 The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for a
 portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico from Zihuatanejo to
 Cabo Corrientes.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/1500Z 12.8N  99.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  17/0000Z 13.8N 100.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  17/1200Z 15.0N 102.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  18/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  18/1200Z 17.5N 105.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  19/1200Z 19.5N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  20/1200Z 21.0N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  21/1200Z 22.0N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila