391 
 WTNT42 KNHC 071447
 TCDAT2
  
 HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  54
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
 1100 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2011
 
 SSM/IS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE EYEWALL OF PHILIPPE HAS
 BEGUN TO DETERIORATE...LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SHEAR AND
 DECREASING SSTS WHICH ARE AFFECTING THE STORM.  ALSO...RECENT
 VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
 BECOME SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST.  THESE CHANGES INDICATE THAT THE
 HURRICANE IS STARTING TO WEAKEN...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET
 AT 75 KT.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
 UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL
 WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT...PHILIPPE IS
 EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BECOMES
 EMBEDDED IN A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
 PERIOD THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE LOW
 PRESSURE SYSTEM AT HIGH LATITUDES.
  
 PHILIPPE IS MAINTAINING A FORWARD MOTION OF 065 DEGREES AT 14 KT.
 AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS
 ANTICIPATED AS PHILIPPE INTERACTS WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. 
 THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE OF THE CYCLONE FOLLOWS
 GUIDANCE FROM THE NCEP OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 
 INIT  07/1500Z 29.9N  55.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  08/0000Z 31.1N  53.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  08/1200Z 33.7N  49.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  09/0000Z 37.0N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  09/1200Z 41.0N  43.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  10/1200Z 47.5N  37.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  11/1200Z 55.0N  30.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  12/1200Z...ABSORBED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY