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 165 
 WTNT42 KNHC 042032
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
 500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2011
  
 THE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
 WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
 DEEP CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
 HAVE FALLEN TO 45 KT...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1410 UTC SHOWED A FEW 50
 KT BARBS IN THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE
 INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 55 KT.  
 
 GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR WHICH
 HAS BEEN AFFECTING PHILIPPE FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS SHOULD ABATE IN THE
 NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING THE CYCLONE IN A FAVORABLE BUT SMALL REGION
 OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
 STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW
 PHILIPPE BECOMING A HURRICANE IN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME FRAME.  STRONG
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PHILIPPE AFTER
 48 HOURS...YET FOR THE MOST PART THE INTENSITY MODELS DO NOT SHOW
 MUCH WEAKENING.  THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LGEM...WHICH TENDS TO
 HANDLE SHEAR BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
 THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS AT THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE AT THIS
 TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
 FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND IT IS HIGHER THAN THE LGEM AT DAY 5
 DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BAROCLINIC FORCING AS PHILIPPE
 BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  
 
 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS
 AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOW-CLOUD LINES SUGGEST TO ME THAT IT HAS
 EITHER JUMPED TO THE NORTH...OR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
 BECOMING SOMEWHAT ELONGATED.  REGARDLESS...PHILIPPE HAS AN AVERAGED
 INITIAL MOTION OF 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT AND IS ABOUT START ITS SHARP
 RE-CURVATURE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR
 THE FIRST 72 HOURS...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS
 NOW...THE ECMWF IS ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
 WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER WEST AND NORTH.  THE ECMWF ALSO APPEARS TO
 DIFFER FROM THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BY HAVING PHILIPPE STAY FARTHER
 SOUTH AND BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
 IT BECOMING THE MAIN THE PARENT CYCLONE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE
 NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
 ONE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT IS THEN VERY SIMILAR ON DAYS 3
 THROUGH 5...FOLLOWING THE IDEA THAT PHILIPPE WILL BE MOVING
 NORTHEASTWARD AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON DAY 5.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  04/2100Z 24.1N  60.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  05/0600Z 24.5N  61.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  05/1800Z 25.2N  61.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  06/0600Z 26.3N  61.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  06/1800Z 27.3N  60.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  07/1800Z 29.5N  57.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  08/1800Z 32.0N  50.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  09/1800Z 36.5N  46.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
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