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 448 
 WTNT42 KNHC 032037
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
 500 PM AST MON OCT 03 2011
  
 PHILIPPE IS TILTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH HEIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED
 NORTHERLY SHEAR.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T3.5...OR 55
 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY
 FOR THIS ADVISORY.  
 
 THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 255 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  THE
 CURRENT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER TO THE WEST
 AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS PHILIPPE REACHES
 A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW
 NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  RE-CURVATURE AHEAD OF THE LOW IS
 EXPECTED BY 48-72 HOURS...BUT THE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM THE 12 UTC
 MODELS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND TRENDED SLOWER.  BASED ON THIS
 CHANGE...THE NEW FORECAST IS SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
 THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN SLOWED DOWN ON DAYS 4 AND 5.
 
 PHILIPPE HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 36 HOURS OF BEING IN A HIGH-SHEAR
 ENVIRONMENT...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
 DURING THAT TIME.  BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENTER AN AREA
 OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH COULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  ALL
 OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO...AND THE STATISTICAL
 MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
 SHOWING PHILIPPE BECOMING A HURRICANE AT THE LATTER PART OF THE
 FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
 DEVELOP BY THAT TIME.  IT IS STILL A LITTLE DISCONCERTING THAT THE
 12 UTC CYCLE OF THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE SURFACE
 CIRCULATION OF PHILIPPE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY 48 HOURS. 
 HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IN THAT MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE
 LEFTOVER VORTEX COULD BE LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL
 DIFFLUENCE.  IF THE TRACK OF PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND
 FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THERE COULD BE A DELAY BEFORE IT IS NEGATIVELY
 AFFECTED BY THE DEVELOPING SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE
 ALLOWS PHILIPPE TO BECOME A HURRICANE AROUND DAY 4...BUT IT IS
 STILL LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  03/2100Z 24.6N  56.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  04/0600Z 24.5N  58.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  04/1800Z 24.8N  60.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  05/0600Z 25.2N  61.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  05/1800Z 25.8N  61.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  06/1800Z 27.5N  61.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  07/1800Z 29.0N  58.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  08/1800Z 30.5N  54.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
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