451 
 WTNT42 KNHC 031454
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
 1100 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011
  
 SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS A
 WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE.  ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAD BEEN
 LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WE JUST
 RECEIVED A 1250 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT INDICATES THE CENTER MAY HAVE
 DIVED SOUTH...OR EVEN RE-FORMED...NEAR THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.  THE
 ASCAT DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KT.
  
 PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF NORTHERLY
 SHEAR...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.
 SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...AND EVEN
 STRENGTHEN DESPITE THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS...THERE IS NOT MUCH
 REASON TO DOUBT THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO...AND THIS IS
 REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  PHILIPPE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
 REACH A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BY DAY 3...WHICH SHOULD FOSTER
 SOME STRENGTHENING AT THAT TIME.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW TAKE
 PHILIPPE TO OR JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT FOR NOW THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST STOPS JUST SHORT OF SHOWING THAT.  THE 00 UTC
 CYCLE OF THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE PHILIPPE IN ABOUT 48
 HOURS...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS CONTINUES IN THE
 12 UTC CYCLE.
  
 WITH THE RE-LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE LONG-TERM 24-HOUR MOTION IS
 250 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS STEERING
 PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY AN EXPANDING
 CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN SHARPLY
 NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 3.  A NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD ACCELERATION
 IS INDICATED ON DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES
 VERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  03/1500Z 24.8N  55.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  04/0000Z 25.0N  57.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  04/1200Z 25.2N  59.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  05/0000Z 25.7N  60.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  05/1200Z 26.5N  60.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  06/1200Z 28.5N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  07/1200Z 30.5N  55.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  08/1200Z 32.5N  50.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG