076 
 WTNT42 KNHC 030247
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
  
 BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED
 CENTER OF PHILIPPE. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN UNABLE TO
 SUSTAIN ITSELF IN THE FACE OF VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FROM
 THE NORTH. PHILIPPE MAY BE SOMEWHAT RESILIENT IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR
 BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS CONFINED TO LEVELS ABOVE 300 MB INSTEAD OF
 EXTENDING THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. A BLEND OF DVORAK
 T- AND CI-NUMBERS AND RECENT ADT VALUES SUGGESTS THAT PHILIPPE IS
 MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. THE
 HOSTILE SHEAR AFFECTING PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RELAX
 DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REACHING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
 48-72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
 DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR WEAKENS...WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION
 EXPECTED IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
 SHEAR...PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER THAN WHAT PHILIPPE IS EXPERIENCING
 NOW...SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
 IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 BUT REMAINS A TAD
 BELOW IT AT LATER TIMES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION
 THAT CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISSIPATION IN 2-3 DAYS WHEN THE SHEAR
 IS FORECAST TO DECREASE HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED.
 
 RECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED ITS HEADING. WHILE
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES
 SUGGEST THAT A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN.
 GLOBAL MODELS KEEP PHILIPPE MOVING WESTWARD TO EVEN WEST-
 SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
 PHILIPPE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
 THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW TO SOUTH OF A MID- TO
 UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WHILE THE LARGE-
 SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...DIFFERENCES
 ARE SEEN IN THE SHARPNESS AND TIMING OF THE TURN. THESE DIFFERENCES
 ARE LARGELY RELATED TO THE LATITUDE OF THE STORM WHEN IT FIRST
 ENCOUNTERS THIS DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...
 WHICH KEEP THE PHILIPPE FARTHER NORTH...FAVOR A QUICKER AND SHARPER
 TURN WHILE THE GFS AND REGIONAL MODELS...WHICH LIE FARTHER SOUTH
 INITIALLY...DELAY THE TURN AND ARE NOT AS SHARP. THE NEW NHC TRACK
 FORECAST IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND GIVE THE MORE
 SOUTHERLY GROUP OF GUIDANCE GREATER WEIGHT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN
 THE OBSERVED MOTION.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  03/0300Z 26.1N  53.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  03/1200Z 25.9N  55.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  04/0000Z 25.6N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  04/1200Z 25.5N  60.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  05/0000Z 26.1N  61.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  06/0000Z 27.8N  61.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  07/0000Z 30.2N  58.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  08/0000Z 32.0N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN