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 980 
 WTNT42 KNHC 012033
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
 500 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011
  
 AN ASCAT SWATH PARTIALLY CAUGHT PHILIPPE AT 1331 UTC...AND SOMEWHAT
 SURPRISINGLY...IT SHOWED A COUPLE OF 55-KT WIND BARBS LOCATED TO
 THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THIS IS BEING SET AS THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY...AND IT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE DUE TO A POTENTIAL LOW
 BIAS IN THE DATA...AND BECAUSE THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD WAS NOT
 MEASURED BY THE INSTRUMENT.  GIVEN THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY...
 THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE
 FORECAST PERIOD BUT INDICATES THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN OF WEAKENING
 AND RE-STRENGTHENING AS BEFORE.  THE REASONING FOR THIS INTENSITY
 FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED.  STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
 IMPACT PHILIPPE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO AND SHOULD INDUCE SOME
 GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE SHEAR COULD RELAX BY DAY 4 WHEN PHILIPPE
 REACHES A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...AND THE STATISTICAL
 MODELS...AS WELL AS THE GFDL...ARE SUGGESTING THAT SOME 
 STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT.  A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
 AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
 FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA...
 AND THAT SHOULD TURN PHILIPPE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
 RIDGE BY DAY 3 WITH PHILIPPE RESPONDING BY SLOWING DOWN AND TURNING
 TOWARD THE NORTH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
 MODELS ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT PHILIPPE WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE FLOW
 AHEAD OF A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THE GFS
 IS STILL A SLOWER AND SOUTHERN OUTLIER...HAVING PHILIPPE MISS THE
 TROUGH AND GETTING STUCK TO THE SOUTH OF A POST-FRONTAL HIGH
 PRESSURE SYSTEM.  DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON DAYS
 4 AND 5.
  
 BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII AND THE
 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE REQUIRED ON THIS FORECAST ADVISORY. 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  01/2100Z 25.2N  49.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  02/0600Z 25.6N  50.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  02/1800Z 25.9N  52.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  03/0600Z 25.8N  54.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  03/1800Z 25.7N  57.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  04/1800Z 26.5N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  05/1800Z 28.5N  61.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  06/1800Z 32.0N  57.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
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