508 
 WTNT42 KNHC 011445
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011
  
 PHILIPPE IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE
 DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  DEEP CONVECTION IS
 PRIMARILY LIMITED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT BASED ON SIMILAR DVORAK
 ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT.
 
 PHILIPPE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
 AND HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A MOTION OF 300 DEGREES AT 8
 KT.  GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ARE INDICATING THAT A RIDGE AXIS WILL
 BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD AS HURRICANE OPHELIA MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...AND
 THIS FEATURE SHOULD FORCE PHILIPPE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION
 BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS.  THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO REACH A
 WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
 OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND CONSEQUENTLY MAKE A SLOW TURN
 TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  ALL OF THE TRACK
 MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE GFS SHOWS A SMALLER CUT-OFF
 LOW AND LEAVES PHILIPPE IN A WEAKER STEERING FLOW.  THIS MAKES THE
 GFS A SLOWER...SOUTHERN OUTLIER RELATIVE TO THE OTHER MODELS.  OUT
 OF RESPECT FOR THAT MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
 SLOWER THAN THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON DAYS 4
 AND 5.
 
 THIRTY TO FORTY KNOTS OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
 AFFECT PHILIPPE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT IS BECOMING
 MORE APPARENT THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE RESILIENT ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND
 THIS ENVIRONMENT.  PHILIPPE WILL BY NO MEANS BE A HEALTHY-LOOKING
 CYCLONE...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE TOO DIFFICULT FOR IT TO MAINTAIN
 CONVECTION AND REMAIN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE IT MOVES OVER
 WARMER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
 CONSENSUS AND INDICATES WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS.  SOME
 RE-STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED ON DAYS 4 AND 5 WHEN PHILIPPE ENTERS
 A LOWER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS OF
 LOW CONFIDENCE...IS NOT AS HIGH AS THE INTENSITY MODELS DURING THAT
 PERIOD.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  01/1500Z 24.8N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  02/0000Z 25.4N  49.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  02/1200Z 25.9N  51.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  03/0000Z 26.1N  53.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  03/1200Z 25.9N  55.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  04/1200Z 26.0N  59.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  05/1200Z 28.0N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  06/1200Z 30.5N  58.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
 
 509 
 WTNT41 KNHC 011445
 TCDAT1
  
 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011
  
 OPHELIA HAS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN ON BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND
 MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE HURRICANE HAS A CLEAR EYE
 SURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ALTHOUGH BOTH
 OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING SLIGHTLY...THEY
 STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. BECAUSE OPHELIA IS
 STILL EMBEDDED IN LIGHT SHEAR AND MOVING OVER HIGH SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES...ONLY SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
 TODAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS OPHELIA
 REACHES COOLER WATERS...AND MOST LIKELY OPHELIA WILL BECOME
 POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS IT PASSES NOT TOO FAR TO THE
 SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND.
  
 OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE
 HURRICANE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN THE FAST SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN
 THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
 UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...OPHELIA SHOULD TURN
 MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
 TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY PACKED AND IS VERY
 CONSISTENT AT LEAST TO 48 HOURS IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
 KEEPS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE PASSING EAST OF BERMUDA LATER
 TODAY.
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  01/1500Z 29.5N  62.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  02/0000Z 32.5N  62.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  02/1200Z 37.0N  61.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
  36H  03/0000Z 42.0N  58.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  03/1200Z 46.5N  52.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  04/1200Z 50.5N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  05/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA