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 987 
 WTNT42 KNHC 292039
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
 500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011
  
 PHILIPPE HAS BEEN A CONUNDRUM TODAY.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
 BEEN ELONGATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND RECENT MICROWAVE
 OVERPASSES HAVE SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE WELL TO THE
 NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED CENTER.  IT APPEARS THAT THE
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REFORMING FARTHER NORTH...BUT IT IS NOT YET
 CERTAIN HOW MUCH IT IS TUCKED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION.  BECAUSE
 OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 RUN THE GAMUT FROM 35 TO 55 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
 40 KT...BUT THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE ESPECIALLY IF THE CENTER
 CONTINUES TO REFORM OR GET PULLED FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
 CONVECTION.  PHILIPPE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE
 NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY MODELS
 SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HOSTILE
 CONDITIONS AND THUS ONLY SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS. 
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO AND KEEPS PHILIPPE AS A
 TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 GIVEN THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310
 DEGREES AT 11 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
 REASONING.  PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD FOR
 THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN WESTWARD BY DAY 3 AS IT COMES
 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE WESTWARD
 MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 5...ESPECIALLY AS PHILIPPE
 BECOMES A WEAKER SYSTEM AS IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
 FLOW.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THERE
 ARE REALLY NO OUTLIERS IN THE SUITE OF MODELS.  THEREFORE...LITTLE
 CHANGE WAS REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPARED WITH THE
 PREVIOUS ONE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  29/2100Z 20.2N  43.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  30/0600Z 21.4N  44.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  30/1800Z 22.8N  46.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  01/0600Z 23.8N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  01/1800Z 24.5N  50.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  02/1800Z 25.0N  54.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  03/1800Z 25.0N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  04/1800Z 24.5N  62.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
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