041 
 WTNT42 KNHC 282037
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
 500 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011
  
 THE APPEARANCE OF PHILIPPE ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
 UNCHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
 SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN
 PERIODICALLY EXPOSED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
 SAB. 
 
 PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT.
 THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE...INDUCED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
 ATLANTIC...WILL ALLOW PHILIPPE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
 TWO DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD...RESULTING
 IN A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW
 SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN MORE WESTWARD
 MOTION AND AN INCREASED FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE...
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION TOWARD
 THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
 OVER PHILIPPE....WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO
 24 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR COULD BRIEFLY
 DECREASE BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PHILIPPE TO
 MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. GIVEN THIS...THE
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW MAINTAINS PHILIPPE AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL
 STORM FOR 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
 SUBSTANTIALLY...AND PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  28/2100Z 17.0N  39.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  29/0600Z 17.9N  41.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  29/1800Z 19.3N  42.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  30/0600Z 20.9N  44.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  30/1800Z 22.1N  46.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  01/1800Z 23.6N  49.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  02/1800Z 25.0N  53.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  03/1800Z 25.0N  56.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN/ZELINSKY