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 544 
 WTNT42 KNHC 280257
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
  
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON PHILIPPE.  DEEP
 CONVECTION HAS BECOME QUITE LIMITED AND WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS
 LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...PHILIPPE IS
 CONSERVATIVELY KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM...BASED ON A RECENT DVORAK
 CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM TAFB.  THE SHEAR IS
 EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT
 FOR A SMALL WINDOW BETWEEN ABOUT 36 AND 60 HOURS.  THE SHEAR ALONG
 WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
 NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN PHILIPPE BECOMING A
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
 THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND MUCH BELOW THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THAT
 DEEPENS THE CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS.  THE UPDATED FORECAST ALSO NOW
 SHOWS PHILIPPE BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 4-5
 DAYS...WHEN THE SHEAR INCREASE FURTHER.  IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES
 NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER OVERNIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY...THE
 CYCLONE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
 A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST.  AFTER 72 HOURS...A STRONG MID-
 TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
 ATLANTIC.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TURN PHILIPPE...OR ITS
 REMNANTS...MORE TOWARD THE WEST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
 GUIDANCE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN
 ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS
 AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE
 MEAN AND THE EXPERIMENTAL HFIP MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  28/0300Z 16.1N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  28/1200Z 16.5N  38.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  29/0000Z 17.7N  39.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  29/1200Z 19.1N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  30/0000Z 20.6N  42.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  01/0000Z 22.8N  44.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  02/0000Z 24.5N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  03/0000Z 25.5N  50.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 
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