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 847 
 WTNT42 KNHC 270847
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
 500 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
  
 PHILIPPE HAS TAKEN ON THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE
 THIS MORNING. NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
 DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN
 EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN IS DUE
 TO ABOUT 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...ACCORDING TO THE
 SHIPS MODEL. THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
 SINCE THE TIME OF THE 2304 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS...SO THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR...WHICH
 IS BEING PRODUCED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
 PHILIPPE...IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
 DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW A VERY GRADUAL
 WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVERSELY...THE REGIONAL
 HURRICANE MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE GAINING STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY BEYOND
 A COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
 ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE
 AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
 THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT...LOCATED
 NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
 ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF PHILIPPE LIFTS OUT.
 THIS FLOW PATTERN COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN A BIT TO THE LEFT
 WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. IN TWO
 TO THREE DAYS...ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BUT THEN
 BYPASS PHILIPPE...CAUSING IT TO TURN NORTHWARD. IN ITS WAKE...THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD ONCE AGAIN...TURNING
 PHILIPPE BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 5. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT
 SPREAD STILL EXISTS AMONGST THE MODELS...THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER
 AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE
 WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  27/0900Z 16.1N  35.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  27/1800Z 16.7N  35.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  28/0600Z 17.6N  37.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  28/1800Z 18.7N  38.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  29/0600Z 19.9N  39.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  30/0600Z 22.3N  40.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  01/0600Z 24.0N  41.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  02/0600Z 25.0N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
  
 
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