728 
 WTNT42 KNHC 251458
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011
  
 PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH A
 NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE
 CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT BASED ON
 A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 30
 KT FROM SAB.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
 CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE MODELS REMAIN
 IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PHILIPPE MOVING TOWARD A DEVELOPING
 WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND GRADUALLY
 TURNING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND MOVING NORTHWARD
 AFTER THAT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING RECURVATURE TO
 THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF MODEL. OUT OF RESPECT
 FOR THAT MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY
 A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
 AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVN AND TVCA.
 
 MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE
 MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING
 THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...PHILLIPE IS EXPECTED TO 
 EXPERIENCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND BE MOVING
 OVER SUB-27C SSTS AND INTO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
 GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
 REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...BUT BELOW THE MORE
 ROBUST GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH STILL INSIST THAT PHILLIPE WILL
 BE NEAR CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/1500Z 12.5N  30.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  26/0000Z 13.3N  32.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  26/1200Z 14.4N  33.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  27/0000Z 15.5N  34.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  27/1200Z 16.7N  35.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  28/1200Z 19.3N  37.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  29/1200Z 22.5N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  30/1200Z 26.0N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART