182 
 WTNT42 KNHC 231425
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005
  
 THE LEFTWARD BEND IN TRACK CONTINUES...AND INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
 IS NOW AROUND 290/16...ALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-AVERAGE SPEED IS EVEN
 FASTER.  PHILIPPE IS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AROUND A LARGER
 DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED ABOUT 200 N MI TO THE
 SOUTH.  IN FACT...PHILIPPE NOW HAS THE APPEARANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
 LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED
 CIRCULATION.  SINCE THE LARGER CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH IS BECOMING
 THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
 PHILIPPE TO BECOME ABSORBED AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 
 HOWEVER... IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...PHILIPPE COULD DISSIPATE
 EVEN SOONER.
 
 THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
 BERMUDA.  EVEN IF PHILIPPE DISSIPATES...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE
 FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE ISLAND AS A RESULT
 OF THE LARGER CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/1500Z 31.1N  63.2W    35 KT
  12HR VT     24/0000Z 31.5N  66.0W    35 KT
  24HR VT     24/1200Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED
 
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