151 
 WTNT42 KNHC 211443
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
  
 WESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE NEAR 23N
 61W CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON PHILIPPE.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 
 REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER IN
 MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. OVERNIGHT POSITION ESTIMATES 
 WERE NOT BAD AND ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT NEEDED TO BE
 MADE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
 BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT.  A 0922 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT DETECT ANY
 BELIEVABLE 50 KT WIND VECTORS AND THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 WILL BE LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/5. THE FORECAST REASONING
 THROUGH 72 HOURS REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO MOVE
 SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED
 PERIODS.  THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF NOW SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE
 MAY NOT GET PICKED UP BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
 NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND GFDL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A
 NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AND EVENTUAL ABSORPTION.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST WILL BACK OFF ON ABSORPTION AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A 5 DAY
 FORECAST POINT. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE IN THAT SOLUTION...THE 5
 DAY FORECAST POINT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED WESTWARD IN SUBSEQUENT
 FORECASTS.
 
 DESPITE THE CURRENT SHEARED CONDITION OF PHILIPPE...AND WITH NO
 DECREASE IN SHEAR LIKELY...IT IS A LITTLE HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHY
 BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS RE-INTENSIFY PHILIPPE.  OUT OF
 DEFERENCE TO THIS GUIDANCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A LITTLE
 RESTRENGTHENING...BUT CONTINUED WEAKENING SEEMS JUST AS LIKELY.   
 
 THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.
 
 FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/1500Z 20.2N  57.2W    45 KT
  12HR VT     22/0000Z 21.5N  57.4W    45 KT
  24HR VT     22/1200Z 23.8N  58.0W    55 KT
  36HR VT     23/0000Z 26.0N  58.6W    55 KT
  48HR VT     23/1200Z 28.5N  59.0W    55 KT
  72HR VT     24/1200Z 34.5N  57.5W    50 KT
  96HR VT     25/1200Z 38.5N  50.0W    45 KT
 120HR VT     26/1200Z 41.5N  44.0W    45 KT
  
  
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