304 
 WTNT42 KNHC 200230
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005
 
 ALTHOUGH PHILIPPE HAS NOT BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE
 IMAGES AND BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT WELL DEFINED...BASED ON THE
 DVORAK TECHNIQUE USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...THE HURRICANE
 HAS STRENGTHENED A BIT.  INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 70
 KT.  SOME VERTICAL SHEAR IS BEING IMPARTED ON THE HURRICANE DUE TO A
 SWATH OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE OUTFLOW OF
 RITA...NEAR AND NORTH OF 20N.  HOWEVER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES
 THAT THIS SHEAR WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW
 STRENGTHENING...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
 FORECAST.
 
 INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...330/5. 
 TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  FOR THE NEXT
 SEVERAL DAYS...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-
 NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 60W. 
 BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO
 ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
 TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
 MARITIMES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
 TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/0300Z 18.3N  56.8W    70 KT
  12HR VT     20/1200Z 19.2N  57.1W    70 KT
  24HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N  57.5W    75 KT
  36HR VT     21/1200Z 22.3N  58.0W    80 KT
  48HR VT     22/0000Z 24.2N  58.5W    85 KT
  72HR VT     23/0000Z 28.5N  59.5W    85 KT
  96HR VT     24/0000Z 33.0N  59.0W    80 KT
 120HR VT     25/0000Z 37.0N  53.0W    70 KT
  
  
 $$