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 921 
 WTNT42 KNHC 182100
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005
  
 A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C HAS
 DEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
 HOURS. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE STILL HOLDING AT T3.0/ 45 KT...BUT THE
 INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW 
 PATTERN IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO
 THE NORTHWEST.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED MOVE
 SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
 UNSEASONABLY WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
 ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL
 GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT AND ON THIS SCENARIO... WITH THE
 ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING THE FORWARD SPEED. THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE
 FASTEST AND THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS NEAR THE
 NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS PHILIPPE PRODUCING A
 FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN AND PRODUCING LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. WITH
 THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER 30C SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AT LEAST
 SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING SEEMS TO BE IN ORDER.
  
 IT NOW APPEARS THAT PHILIPPE WILL NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY
 WATCHES OR WARNING FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART/KNABB
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/2100Z 15.9N  55.9W    45 KT
  12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.7N  56.3W    55 KT
  24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.8N  57.3W    65 KT
  36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.9N  58.2W    70 KT
  48HR VT     20/1800Z 20.1N  58.7W    75 KT
  72HR VT     21/1800Z 23.0N  59.5W    85 KT
  96HR VT     22/1800Z 25.5N  60.5W    90 KT
 120HR VT     23/1800Z 28.5N  61.5W    95 KT
  
 $$
 
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