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 492 
 WTNT42 KNHC 180330
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005
  
 CONVENTIONAL AND MCIROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST TROPICAL STORM
 PHILIPPE HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE
 PAST 6 HOURS. A 17/2154Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED THE SURFACE
 CENTER WEST OF 55W LONGITUDE...WHEREAS THE RECON POSITION NEAR THAT
 TIME INDICATED A CIRCULATION CENTER EAST OF 55W. MY FEELING IS THAT
 THE RECON CENTER WAS A SMALL CIRCULATION ROTATING NORTHWARD UP THE
 EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THAT THE TWO CENTERS
 HAVE NOW CONSOLIDATED NEAR 55W. A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
 DEVELOPED OVER AND SOUTH OF THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM
 SAB...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
 LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AN AVERAGE OF THE
 VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. A RECON AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING
 PHILIPPE AROUND 06Z.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 335/4.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE
 UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THIS REGION OF THE ATLANTIC...AND PHILIPPE IS
 EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
 PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO
 THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THAT MAY RESULT IN A MORE
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER DIVERGENT...BUT IS IN
 GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST MOTION AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS
 CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 30C AND WARMER SSTS FOR THE NEXT
 5 DAYS...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT. 
 THEREFORE...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.
  
 BASED ON THE MORE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...WATCHES OR
 WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY PORTION OF THE
 LESSER ANTILES. HOWEVER...WITH STEERING CURRENTS BEING RATHER WEAK
 AND ILL-DEFINED...ANY WESTWARD SHIFT COULD REQUIRE WATCHES OR
 WARNINGS AT SOME POINT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/0300Z 14.1N  55.2W    35 KT
  12HR VT     18/1200Z 14.9N  55.7W    40 KT
  24HR VT     19/0000Z 15.8N  56.4W    50 KT
  36HR VT     19/1200Z 17.0N  57.3W    60 KT
  48HR VT     20/0000Z 18.1N  58.3W    65 KT
  72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.6N  59.9W    75 KT
  96HR VT     22/0000Z 23.0N  61.0W    85 KT
 120HR VT     23/0000Z 25.0N  62.0W    95 KT
  
 $$
 
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It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
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