253 
 WTNT43 KNHC 140237
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
  
 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PAULA HAS GRADUALLY DETERIORATED THIS
 EVENING...THE EYE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY WELL INTACT IN CUBAN RADAR
 IMAGERY.  A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB
 SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT.  THE NEXT
 RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH PAULA AROUND 0900 UTC.
  
 PAULA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...PRIMARILY
 DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR THAT IS ADVECTING
 OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...THE
 EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA WILL LIKELY HASTEN THE
 DEMISE OF THE SMALL HURRICANE.  PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
 TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
 A COUPLE OF DAYS.
  
 THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW
 HOURS. PAULA IS FORECAST TO TURN EAST-NORTHEAST...THEN EAST DURING
 THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IF THE HURRICANE WEAKENS FASTER THAN PREDICTED
 BELOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
 NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF
 OF MEXICO. THE LATTER SOLUTION IS FAVORED BY THE UKMET...GFS...AND
 ECMWF MODELS.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ADJUSTED TOWARD THAT
 SCENARIO...BUT LIES NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/0300Z 21.9N  85.4W    70 KT
  12HR VT     14/1200Z 22.3N  84.9W    60 KT
  24HR VT     15/0000Z 22.7N  83.6W    50 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     15/1200Z 22.8N  82.1W    35 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     16/0000Z 22.5N  80.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N  79.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN