101 
 WTNT43 KNHC 130241
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
 1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
  
 A 1926 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT ARRIVED AFTER THE ISSUANCE 
 OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE...WITH
 AN EXTREMELY SMALL EYE.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE CLOUD PATTERN IN
 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT ELONGATED WITH
 RESTRICTED OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  A 0047 UTC SSMIS
 PASS ALSO SHOWS LESS SYMMETRY AND NO EYE FEATURE...HOWEVER THIS
 INSTRUMENT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RESOLVE THE TINY EYE.  THE LATEST
 DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 4.5 AND 5.0...
 RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 REMAINS 85 KT. 
  
 PAULA HAS VERY LITTLE OPPORTUNITY LEFT TO STRENGTHEN.  THE HURRICANE
 WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
 DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE SHEAR...COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR AND
 EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING OF THE
 CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING
 THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE
 GFDL...HWRF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
   
 SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT PAULA HAS TURNED
 NORTHWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 355/8.  THE TRACK REASONING
 HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WESTERLY FLOW NEAR
 THE BASE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
 UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO TURN PAULA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THEN
 EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.  THERE REMAINS LARGE SPREAD IN
 THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAST PAULA MOVES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
 CYCLONE WILL GET.  THE NOGAPS AND GFDN WHICH DEPICT A DEEPER SYSTEM
 ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE
 GFS WHICH WEAKENS THE HURRICANE VERY QUICKLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
 MEANDERING NEAR WESTERN CUBA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN
 THESE TWO EXTREMES AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. 
 THE UPDATED FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
 AFTER 36 HOURS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
 CONSENSUS.  GIVEN THE COMPLEX SITUATION...LARGE SPREAD IN THE
 GUIDANCE...AND EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS
 LESS CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/0300Z 19.9N  86.0W    85 KT
  12HR VT     13/1200Z 20.9N  86.1W    85 KT
  24HR VT     14/0000Z 21.8N  85.6W    75 KT
  36HR VT     14/1200Z 22.1N  84.8W    65 KT
  48HR VT     15/0000Z 22.5N  83.5W    55 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     16/0000Z 22.5N  81.0W    35 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N  80.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI