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 810 
 WTNT43 KNHC 122044
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
 400 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
  
 AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN MONITORING PAULA AND RECENTLY MEASURED
 FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 94 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. EARLIER
 SFMR WINDS RANGED BETWEEN 85 TO 90 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN EYE
 OF 10 N MI IN DIAMETER. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADY NEAR
 981 MB FOR THE PAST TWO FIXES...PERHAPS INDICATING THAT THE RAPID
 INTENSIFICATION HAS ENDED. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS
 OUTSTANDING WITH A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE
 OVERCAST BUT LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS ARE
 5.0...OR 90 KNOTS...ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  BASED ON A BLEND OF
 THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 85 KNOTS. PAULA HAS A SMALL
 WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12
 HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF HIGH SHEAR IN THE
 YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA. THE
 SHEAR AND THE TERRAIN WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AS INDICATED IN THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
  
 THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT
 8 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. IN ABOUT
 12 TO 24 HOURS...PAULA WILL ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
 WITH THE BASE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TURN TOWARD THE
 NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER WESTERN CUBA.  NOW THAT PAULA IS 
 STRONGER...IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE DEEP LAYER FLOW...AND THAT IS
 PERHAPS THE REASON WHY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE
 MORE AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD TRACK IN THE LATEST RUNS. IN PREVIOUS
 RUNS..MODELS KEPT A SHALLOW CYCLONE MEANDERING OVER THE
 NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  NEVERTHELESS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS
 HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BEYOND 48 HOURS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COMPLEX FLOW
 PATTERN...THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE EFFECT OF LAND.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/2100Z 19.2N  86.0W    85 KT
  12HR VT     13/0600Z 20.3N  86.2W    95 KT
  24HR VT     13/1800Z 21.5N  86.0W    85 KT
  36HR VT     14/0600Z 22.0N  85.0W    75 KT
  48HR VT     14/1800Z 22.5N  83.5W    65 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     15/1800Z 22.5N  80.5W    45 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N  79.0W    35 KT
 120HR VT     17/1800Z 22.5N  78.0W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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