428 
 WTNT43 KNHC 112032
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
 500 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
 RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
 AREA NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...AND
 AN INTENSIFYING ONE AT THAT.  IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE
 AIRCRAFT FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL AND
 SFMR WINDS THAT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT...AND THIS
 COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE
 SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY TRENDS...AND
 PAULA COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  BEYOND
 THAT TIME...PAULA MAY ENCOUNTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ON THE
 SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS
 A BROAD PEAK FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS AND THEN SLOW WEAKENING AT DAYS 4
 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND IS CLOSEST TO
 THE LGEM AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8 BASED ON AIRCRAFT FIXES AND
 EARLIER ESTIMATES OF THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING CENTER. PAULA
 IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT
 COUPLE OF DAYS...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS A BROAD
 DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
 THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
 NORTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
 SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND LEAVE THE CYCLONE
 BEHIND IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
 CARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS PAULA DRIFTING SLOWLY
 EASTWARD AT DAYS 3 AND 4...WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION AT DAY 5.
 THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND
 ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK
 FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE. 
 
 BASED ON THE FORECAST...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
 PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/2100Z 16.0N  84.0W    50 KT
  12HR VT     12/0600Z 16.8N  84.8W    55 KT
  24HR VT     12/1800Z 18.3N  86.2W    65 KT
  36HR VT     13/0600Z 19.6N  86.6W    70 KT
  48HR VT     13/1800Z 20.0N  86.4W    70 KT
  72HR VT     14/1800Z 20.0N  85.5W    70 KT
  96HR VT     15/1800Z 20.0N  85.0W    65 KT
 120HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N  85.0W    65 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN