614 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 112032
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number  14
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018
 
 Paul does not have much time left as a tropical cyclone.  The
 low-cloud center is displaced to the west of a diminishing area of
 deep convection.  The intensity is held at 30 kt at this time, in
 agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB.  Since the
 cyclone will soon be moving over SSTs below 24 deg C, the system
 will likely lose its remaining deep convection and degenerate into
 a remnant low in 24 hours, or sooner.
 
 The initial motion is west-northwest or 285/9 kt.  As the cyclone
 becomes increasingly shallow, it should turn toward the west and
 eventually west-southwest following the low-level tradewind flow.
 The NHC track forecast is close to the HCCA corrected consensus
 prediction.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/2100Z 22.3N 125.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  12/0600Z 22.6N 126.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  12/1800Z 22.8N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  13/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  13/1800Z 23.0N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  14/1800Z 22.5N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch