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 051 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 111443
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number  13
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018
 
 The center of Paul remains to the east of a small area of deep
 convection; a consequence of persistently northeasterly shear.  The
 initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt using a blend of the latest
 Dvorak estimates.  Slow weakening is anticipated as Paul moves into
 a stable, drier air mass and over cooler sea surface temperatures.
 Most of the global models suggest deep convection will cease
 tomorrow, and remnant low status is indicated at that time.
 
 The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10
 kt.  A slow turn toward the west is forecast in 36 hours as the
 weakening cyclone becomes shallow and is steered by the low-level
 easterly tradewind flow.  The southward model trend from the
 previous forecast continues this cycle, and the NHC forecast is
 adjusted in that direction.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/1500Z 22.3N 124.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  12/0000Z 22.5N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  12/1200Z 22.8N 127.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  13/0000Z 23.1N 129.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  13/1200Z 23.2N 129.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  14/1200Z 23.0N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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