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 524 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 110835
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number  12
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018
 
 Paul's surface circulation continues to be decoupled well to the
 east of a rather shapeless convective mass that persists only as a
 result of intermittent bursts of deep convection.  The cyclone's
 intensity is held at depression strength and is a compromise of the
 TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak estimates.
 
 Within the next 12 hours, Paul will be moving into a stable, drier
 air mass and over cooler sea surface temperatures.  This should
 support further weakening, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate
 into a remnant low in 48 hours, which is indicated in the
 large-scale models and the statistical intensity guidance.
 
 The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/10
 kt, within the steering current produced by a mid-level ridge
 extending westward over the eastern Pacific from the Baja California
 peninsula.  A slow turn westward is forecast in 36 hours as the
 weakening cyclone becomes vertically more shallow and is steered by
 the low-level easterly tradewind flow.  The official forecast is
 again adjusted to the south of the previous package to conform more
 with the TVCN multi-model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/0900Z 21.9N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  11/1800Z 22.2N 124.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  12/0600Z 22.5N 126.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  12/1800Z 22.8N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  13/0600Z 23.0N 129.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  14/0600Z 23.2N 130.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  15/0600Z 23.2N 132.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts
 
 
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