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 317 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 110246
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number  11
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018
 
 Paul remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the associated deep
 convection limited to the western portion of the circulation.  The
 center of the system is completely exposed and the Dvorak
 classifications have decreased from all agencies.  Based on that
 data, Paul is now downgraded to a tropical depression with an
 initial intensity of 30 kt.  Although the wind shear is expected to
 lessen during the next couple of days, Paul will soon cross the 26
 deg C isotherm and it will be headed for even cooler waters and a
 drier airmass during the next few days. These conditions support
 continued weakening, and Paul will likely become a remnant low in a
 couple of days or less.
 
 The depression has turned toward the west-northwest, with the
 initial motion estimated to be 300/8 kt.  A gradual turn toward the
 west is expected during the next few days as the cyclone becomes
 increasingly shallow and is steered by the low-level flow.  The new
 NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the south of the previous
 one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/0300Z 21.6N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  12/0000Z 22.3N 125.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  12/1200Z 22.6N 127.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  13/0000Z 22.9N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  14/0000Z 23.2N 130.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  15/0000Z 23.2N 131.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  16/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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