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 501 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 102034
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number  10
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018
 
 Paul continues to have a rather ragged appearance in satellite
 imagery. The low-level center is completely exposed to the east of a
 limited area of deep convection. A pair of recent ASCAT passes
 showed maximum winds of just below tropical-storm-force, so the
 initial intensity has been held at 35 kt, assuming at least a
 little undersampling may have occurred due to limitations of the
 instrument. All of the intensity guidance continues to show
 weakening, and Paul is forecast to become a tropical depression
 later tonight, and a remnant low within the next few days. Given the
 cold SSTs and dry air ahead of Paul, it is certainly possible that
 Paul could become a remnant low or dissipate sooner than currently
 forecast.
 
 No major changes have been made to the previous official track
 forecast. Paul is still moving toward the northwest with an initial
 motion of 315/9 kt, but a turn toward the west-northwest should
 begin shortly as Paul is steered increasingly by low-level
 trade-wind flow. By the end of the forecast period, the remnant
 circulation of Paul should slow down and turn westward. The new
 official track forecast is basically a blend of the previous
 forecast and HCCA.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/2100Z 21.3N 121.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  11/0600Z 21.8N 122.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  11/1800Z 22.2N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  12/0600Z 22.6N 126.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  12/1800Z 22.9N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  13/1800Z 23.5N 129.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  14/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  15/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos
 
 
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