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 734 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 101437
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number   9
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018
 
 Paul continues to have its low-level center displaced on the
 northeast side of the main area of deep convection.  This
 convection is not well organized and there is little or no evidence
 of banding features.  The current intensity estimate remains 35 kt,
 which is a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB
 along with an ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS.  Over the next few
 days, Paul will be moving into a drier air mass and over a cooler
 ocean.  This should cause weakening, and the system if forecast to
 degenerate into a remnant low in 72 hours, if not sooner
 
 There is significant spread in the center fixes, so the initial
 motion is a rather uncertain 320/9 kt.  A gradual turn to the
 west-northwest is forecast due to a mid-level ridge the north of
 Paul.  Later in the period, the increasingly shallow cyclonic
 circulation should turn more to the west, following the low-level
 flow.  The official forecast is similar to the previous NHC track
 an close to the correct model consensus, HCCA.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/1500Z 20.8N 120.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  11/0000Z 21.4N 121.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  11/1200Z 21.9N 123.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  12/0000Z 22.3N 125.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  12/1200Z 22.7N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  13/1200Z 23.5N 129.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  14/1200Z 23.8N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  15/1200Z 24.0N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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